Embracing BANI as an Approach for Future-Ready Organizations
The Shift
Our world is filled with overlapping crises—pandemics, climate emergencies, political conflicts, and fast-changing technology. Traditional risk management often struggles to keep up. Futurist Jamais Cascio says we now live in an “Age of Chaos,” where old tools fail to predict or handle the cascading threats we face. To help us navigate this new reality, he created the BANI framework: Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible.
This framework sums up the unique challenges of the 21st century. It pushes us to rethink complexity and design flexible strategies. We do not want to only survive these crises—we want to spark innovation that fosters long-term success.
Cascio’s ideas build on analysis he began in 2018, which is reflected in his paper “Facing the Age of Chaos.” In that paper, he noted how today’s problems have grown beyond simple “issues” or “complications.” They form constant, layered “chaos.” Politics, economics, and technology have been complex for decades, but what is new is how fast and completely these forces intersect to create crises on a global scale.
We see one example in how a global pandemic can spark an economic meltdown, which then fuels social unrest. Or how climate disasters can break down infrastructure and disrupt global supply chains. These events feed each other, creating feedback loops that are difficult – or even impossible – to predict with traditional linear methods.
For risk managers who look beyond rigid, compliance-based rules, this world demands agility, creativity, and a forward-looking mindset. Governments, organizations, and communities also need new ways to see risk—especially when numbers alone cannot capture the speed and depth of change.
BANI: A Framework for This Age
BANI is the next step beyond the older VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) model. Each letter of BANI pinpoints a key factor in our age of chaos:
- Brittle – Systems may seem steady yet can shatter under sudden stress. A global supply chain, for example, might look reliable but then collapse in a pandemic.
- Anxious – Constant turmoil triggers anxiety. People, teams, and societies may make decisions based on fear, which can worsen risks. Emotional conditions become a central part of risk strategies.
- Nonlinear – Cause and effect are no longer neat or predictable. A small trigger can spark huge outcomes across many areas—economic, social, political, environmental—in ways no simple model can track.
- Incomprehensible – Some events are so complex that even advanced AI tools can’t fully explain them. Leaders must deal with partial information and depend more on collaboration, intuition, and open-mindedness.
Cascio’s BANI model is straightforward about current realities: things are tough, and our sense of balance is off. But it also offers words and ideas we can use to understand why so many people, institutions, and societies feel this pressure.
Systemic and Cascading Risks
A big part of the rational argument is that no crisis stands alone. A shock in one sector—like energy—can jump to another, creating second- and third-order effects that expand in a Nonlinear way. A single shipping route blockage might, for instance, lead to global supply delays, price hikes, and social tension.
In risk management, we must move away from a single-hazard approach—focusing on one risk at a time—to a wider view of how different risks connect. It’s vital to see where vulnerabilities and capabilities overlap. If a crisis happens in one area, it can make weaknesses worse in another. Strictly numerical risk models often miss how these chain reactions form. We need to think in systems and update our assumptions as events evolve.
From Resilience to Adaptive Capacity
For many years, “resilience” was the main goal in risk management. It suggests bouncing back to a previous state after a shock. But in a world of extreme weather, social shifts, and rapid tech changes, that old “normal” may no longer exist—or even be worth going back to.
This idea ties to Brittleness. Systems that look stable might break when faced with new pressures. Instead, organizations should build adaptive capacity or antifragility, which is not just about surviving a crisis but learning and growing from it.
“Antifragility” means some systems get stronger when stressed. If you have a brittle system, it cracks easily. But an adaptive or antifragile system can bend and gain new strengths as it recovers. To do this, you need flexibility—for example, flexible structures, quick decision-making, and open communication. Such steps let organizations adjust fast and even turn crises into chances to improve.
Building Foresight and Scenario Planning
In a BANI world, there is more anxiety than ever. When people are anxious, they may freeze and are afraid to act. One way to lessen anxiety is by developing foresight. Tools like scenario planning and horizon scanning help leaders imagine many possible outcomes, rather than betting on one “most likely” future.
- Scenario Planning: Teams develop different “futures”—best-case, worst-case, and everything in between. This helps them spot early ‘indicators’ of change and plan for various outcomes. It is especially helpful in a Nonlinear environment where small events can lead to big consequences.
- Horizon Scanning: By watching for new trends—like tech breakthroughs or subtle political shifts—teams can keep strategic plans updated in real time.
Though we cannot remove all uncertainty, preparing for multiple scenarios can keep us from being totally caught off guard. This type of thinking helps organizations pivot more gracefully when crises arise.
Human-Centric Solutions and Ethics
In a BANI world, no matter how advanced our data models are, people still make the choices. Emotions, biases, culture, and ethics all affect how a group responds to chaos. Because some events are Incomprehensible, data alone might not be enough. When information overloads people, they can become confused or even deny facts. So, transparent communication and ethical leadership are more critical than ever.
- Transparent Communication: Share what is known and admit what is not. Hiding risks or pretending to have all the answers can create distrust and delay the changes needed.
- Inclusivity and Collaboration: Crises do not affect everyone the same way. Leaders should listen to a variety of voices—across races, genders, and income levels—to form better, fairer solutions.
- Ethical Decision-Making: When faced with chaos, there’s a risk of choosing short-term gains over long-term values. Leaders who stay true to ethical principles earn more trust and help reduce instability.
As a risk professional, I see the value of bringing empathy into our frameworks. Overlapping crises take a real toll on mental health. By recognizing these human factors and offering guidance that people can connect with, we build deeper trust and more effective risk strategies.
Collaborative Networks and Collective Intelligence
Another lesson from recent years is that networks matter. By “networks,” we mean diverse ecosystems that share resources, ideas, and expertise in real time. Old, top-down structures worked when problems were simpler. But Nonlinear and Incomprehensible challenges often require broad teamwork.
When companies, governments, and communities share insights, they reduce blind spots and can respond faster. Risk management then becomes more than just protecting one organization—it is about using collective intelligence to spot problems early and find solutions. This is even more important for large-scale crises, such as pandemics or global cyber threats, which do not stop at borders. Partnerships across industries and countries can be more flexible, making it easier to adapt as conditions keep shifting.
Embracing Radical Innovation
Huge problems often need bold solutions. Living in an age of chaos can push companies and governments to finally invest in overdue improvements—like cleaner energy, stronger healthcare systems, smarter global partnerships, and better digital rules. Historically, big leaps in science and society have grown out of times of crisis, and today’s environment is no different.
When systems are Brittle, sticking to the old ways can make things worse. Instead, being open to big, game-changing ideas might make us more resilient or antifragile and adaptable. For risk managers, that means explaining why new ideas can pay off in the long run—while still guiding teams to handle the uncertainties that come with innovation. Every new idea can fail, but in a chaotic era, staying the same can be an even bigger risk.
Leadership in the Age of Chaos
Leadership must handle Anxious times with both bravery and empathy. If leaders resort to fear tactics or deny how complex the problems are, they add to the confusion and undermine trust. But if they welcome open dialogue, take responsibility, and support collaborative problem-solving, they can create the sense of safety people need when facing repeated shocks.
Ethical leadership is also key to dealing with Incomprehensible problems. Some challenges cannot be fully understood, so leaders who admit uncertainty but are transparent about their choices often gain more support than those who pretend to “know it all.” Honest humility, combined with reliable communication, builds strong relationships and helps groups adapt faster.
Revolutionary Risk Management
As a risk management professional, I’ve spent years creating programs, workshops, and written works – and my book – Tame the Turmoil: Transform into an Organization Ready for Anything—that tackle the “Age of Chaos” head-on. Traditional risk methods are not enough anymore. We need bold, integrated strategies.
Here are some ideas for modern risk management:
- Systemic Viewpoint: Go beyond siloed risk audits. Study how problems and vulnerabilities interact and amplify each other.
- Adaptive Frameworks: Aim for flexibility and antifragility instead of just ‘resilience’. Develop the capacity to pivot and transform in new conditions.
- Scenario-Based Foresight: Use scenario planning to calm anxiety and widen the range of possible futures you consider.
- Ethical, Inclusive Leadership: Factor in emotions, biases, and culture. Even the best technical fix fails if people do not trust or accept it.
- Collective Intelligence: Encourage teamwork across different sectors and fields to gather diverse knowledge and resources.
- Embrace Innovation: See bold ideas as crucial strategies in times of chaos, not as “nice to have” extras.
Conclusion
In his 2020 paper “The Age of Chaos,” Jamais Cascio provides a sobering lens on how multiple crises stack up and feed each other. By introducing BANI, he gives us a more focused way to define and tackle the reality around us. Risk managers who want to break away from legacy approaches should focus on agility, foresight, working together, and strong ethics.
Though the Age of Chaos sounds alarming, it also calls us to build fresh skills and mindsets and be open to paradigm shifts. We can create more adaptive organizations, uphold trust through open leadership, and form partnerships that spot and address risks before they explode.
This approach lets us shape risk management to match the messy, fast-paced reality of our world. In the end, chaos can drive growth and transformation instead of leading us toward collapse—if we choose to learn and adapt.
Uvidi Management Solutions has been at the forefront of the shifts that are now BANI. Contact us today. Let’s talk about your needs to Tame the Turmoil.
How will BANI affect you? Let’s talk!
